[PS] Russian ships in Syria

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Analysis: Russian ships in Syria unlikely

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by Claude Salhani Washington (UPI) Aug 14, 2007
Is the Russian fleet about to find a home in the warm waters of the Mediterranean in the Syrian ports of Tartous and Latakia? Yes, says one opposition official, citing multiple sources -- all anonymous. No, says with a laugh, Syria's ambassador to Washington.

The Russian navy -- and before it the Soviet navy -- has long desired a warm-water port to serve the Russian fleet when winter freezes the Baltic Sea ports, rendering them inoperable for months at a time.

It was with that in mind that in 1979 the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, crossing in from the neighboring Central Asian Soviet states. For the Soviets, the invasion of Afghanistan was intended as a first step, from where it was widely believed Pakistan could have been next, and would have finally given the Soviets their warm-water port.

Washington also chose to support, finance, arm and train the Afghan mujahedin, the holy warriors of Islam, who were fiercely opposed to the Soviet invasion. Washington erroneously saw in the mujahedin a natural ally with whom they could unite to fight the atheist communist invader.

Again as history would show, this time the plans did not turn out exactly as Washington had expected. True, the Soviets did lose the war and were forced to withdraw from Afghanistan. But the victory by the Islamists spawned a new menace -- Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, who in turn supported the extremist, backward-thinking, ruthless and bloody regime of the Taliban.

Having successfully routed the Soviets, the Taliban were now preparing for another war, this time with their former backers, the United States. The Soviets' age-old dream of having access to a warm-water port had been shelved -- temporarily.

Assuming for a moment that indeed the Russians were to find accommodation for their fleets in a Syrian port, in order to reach the Mediterranean, Russian ships would still need to pass through either the Straits of Gibraltar, controlled by Britain -- thus NATO -- or through the Bosporus, controlled by Turkey, also a NATO member.

Indeed, Russia's desire for a warm-water port is more likely to come about as a result of global warming.

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)
(e-mail: Claude@metimes.com)